26
Feb
Things I’m surprised we don’t have yet
- Wireless everything. Why is my A/V receiver such a mess? Why isn’t this stuff all wireless yet? If not wireless, then why not some “universal” audio+video cable, similar to HDMI, but with a lighter form factor. Why not USB, ethernet, or optical? Why do I still have to plug in my phone to charge it?
- Batteries that last for months or years for portable electronics. This would be more about power consumption than storage, but still feels like batteries have stagnated. Remember when Alkaline batteries first came out? It was *huge*. Lithium is a little better, (and rechargeable) but in general the number of watt-hours per battery is fairly constant.
- Fast internet connections. It seems like the United States has been stuck at ~1Mbps down ~512kbps up for easily 5+ years now. Why isn’t this 100Mbps symmetric?
- Super high resolution displays. In 1990, my main computer was an IBM PS/2 with a 16Mhz i386 processor, 4MB RAM, and a 15″ CRT screen that was 1024×768. In 2009, I bought a new computer (netbook) that runs at 1.6GHz (100 times faster) 2GB RAM (500 times more) with a screen that was 1024×768 (the same size!). Why doesn’t my screen have at least 10x the pixels that it did in 1990?
- Video on demand for everything. Going to digital broadcast sure freed up a lot of valuable airwaves. But wait, why are we broadcasting video over the air at all? The DVR has existed for 10 years now. Isn’t about time we just time shift everything? Live events (sports, etc.) could be live-streamed. I should be able to watch any episode of anything that’s ever aired on TV or any movie ever produced, at a moments notice. Why isn’t this true yet?
- Cars that don’t suck. Why do car’s suck so much? Even the most modern car out there (arguably, the latest generation Toyota Prius) is still a mess of gears, oil, wires, and fairly crappy and old UI conventions on the inside. Where’s my hyper-modern fuel-efficient transport vehicle? Why do I still have to carry around a spare tire and jack, jumper cables, tire chains, etc.
- Better locks for my home. My car will unlock itself when I touch it, and will start without me putting the key in the ignition. But, I have to carry around a small lump of metal to stick in a tiny hole to enter my home. Why isn’t this better?
The keys are especially bad. Even if you can’t have super fancy electro locks, the standard american lock is simply not a deterrent to even the most minor of criminals. Bump keys are readily accessible and require very little skill to use. The pin and tumbler design must go.
posted on HN: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1159256
money, money, money. This will continue for as long as business can make money from the status quo, which translates into planned obsolescence, incompatible protocols, proprietary implementations, and the purchase of competitors for the sole purpose of putting them out of business. Beauty of the free market.
Thanks for sending the Hacker News link. Great to see some discussion there as well!
1. Wireless everything? You can find most technologies with a wireless counterpart. This doesn’t mean it’s better. And then their is demand. The demand for wireless everything simply isn’t there. The cost would be too high without the extra quality.
2. Batteries have come a long way, and are still plugging along. In turn, power consumption has increased as well. Try to find a mobile phone that is just a mobile phone and nothing more. Today, every phone has to do 20 different things, all which add to the power needs. Cut back on the energy needs, and you’d see the increase in life of batteries.
3. That’s just the US, and more a geographic issue.
4. First, you do have a lot more screen space. Your netbook has the same amount, but consider what your netbook is compared to what your old CRT was. It’s much smaller, weighs a lot less, and is an entire computer. Compare a monitor to a monitor, and you’ll see that todays monitors aren’t just about screen space, but also decreasing space on the desk (LCDs). That’s a big reason monitors can only go so far. Couple that with the acceptance of a multi-head system, why should monitors get much larger than they are now?
5. Copyright. Oh, you can get this all now. Watch a show anytime you want. Just download it from a torrent site and you are on your way. But it’s not offered by businesses because of copyright. Then there is also the physical limitations to some extent, but mostly I see this being an issue with Copyright.
6. Price. You can have a super-fancy car that is completely different, but doing so would be out of your own pocket. Change of the magnitude you are suggesting is enormous. Think about all the infrastructure built up around the modern car, and supporting the less modern cars. If anything, adopting purely new technologies in a car would require a lot more than spare tires, jacks, jumper cables, etc. But again, you don’t need to carry around these things. Tires exist that won’t deflate. They cost a fortune, but they exist. Make sure your car shuts off the lights if you leave them on. Options exist. Most people just don’t care for them, so they aren’t common, and that means they are pricier.
7. You don’t need keys to open doors to your house. You can buy electronic key pads and other forms of non-key locking devices. They just cost money.
1’024 × 768 = 786’432 × 10 = 7’864’320 = about 3’200 × 2’400 … screens with that or even higher resolution are available, however, you did not buy one (and I admit they are neither common nor affordable).
Here are a few possible answers:
“Why is my A/V receiver such a mess?”
Have you ever listened to wireless headphones? Notice the quality? That’s why A/V still requires cables. As far as standard is concerned, most receivers have a split wire per speaker. How would this be any different using USB cable? USB cables are much thicker, and (IIRC) lose signal faster than analog copper wire. The max length of a USB cable is 16 feet — most folks need more than that for a proper surround-sound environment (http://www.usb.org/about/faq/ans5)
“Batteries that last for months or years for portable electronics. This would be more about power consumption than storage, but still feels like batteries have stagnated.”
Batteries are constantly advancing. If you tried to power an old device with a modern battery, you would get the longevity results you are expecting. Basically, we are in a chicken-and-egg situation with the battery, where a better battery comes along and someone will find a way to spend more CPU cycles. Nothing new here (same goes for memory, disk space, storage media etc)
“Super high resolution displays. In 1990, my main computer was an IBM PS/2 with a 16Mhz i386 processor, 4MB RAM, and a 15″ CRT screen that was 1024×768. In 2009, I bought a new computer (netbook) that runs at 1.6GHz (100 times faster) 2GB RAM (500 times more) with a screen that was 1024×768 (the same size!). Why doesn’t my screen have at least 10x the pixels that it did in 1990?”
In 1990, your computer took up your entire desk. You now have more power, storage, memory, a flicker-free screen (an important fact most people overlook) in a form factor that is at least 100x smaller than your 1990s-era computer. Form factor is why you cannot have a bigger resolution, there is only so much space to cram the technology required for larger resolutions, and only so much people are willing to pay for (remember, netbooks target the low-end computing market). If you wanted to take up your entire desk, you could buy a 30″ screen – or hell, even two 30″ – each of which would give you 2560 x 1600 resolution (taking Apple’s cinema display as an example). By the way, anyone remember how much a 15″ 1024×768 display cost back in 1990??
“Video on demand for everything.” One word: Money. ISPs are fighting tooth-and-nail against network neutrality because streaming video costs money (among other reasons, like monopolizing content-delivery). In the US with our all-you-can-eat internet plans, we sometimes forget that bandwidth actually costs money.
“Better locks for my home.”
So you would rather carry a bunch of electronics in your pocket that can run out of battery than carry around a single key (hardly a “lump of metal”)? You still will have to carry *something* in your pocket, and who really cares what it is then? What happens when the power goes out? What about security concerns? Lock-and-key is a simple solution that worked remarkably well for the last few centuries, and I don’t really see a need to change to an (untested, unproven) electronic model. Cars are a good testbed, but it’s by no means easy or cheap or reliable to switch to electronic locks.
netbook with 1024×768? curious to hear which one that is, as most seem to have 600 ..
Yeah, but 10x is a real lower bound. From 1990-2010 (20 years) this is what we have:
CPU: 100+x more Mhz (16Mhz -> 1.6GHz, at a minimum), with actual MIPS increases far beyond that. If you compare MIPS & Multi-core, this hits nearly 1000x for desktop processors.
DIsk: 14,000x more bytes (70MB -> 1TB)
Memory: 1,000x more bytes (4MB -> 4GB)
Display: 10x more pixels, at best (commercially available tech)
And, by the way, several phones (Nexus One, Moto Droid) have a 300dpi screen. (480×854, 3.7″ diagonal). Of course 300dpi desktop displays are available from specialized manufacturers, but even Apple, the display King, tops out at 2560×1600, and most mid-high end consumers will be buying at 1920×1200 and 24″ in size.
The only rationalization I can make for the “display gap” is for bits per pixel. In 1990 it was 1024x768x8 (8-bit color mapped) and my netbook has accelerated 24-bit graphics, an increase of 3x in “bytes per pixel” or “display bytes per screen”.
A fair estimate would be:
1990: 1024×768 @ 8bpp = 786,432 bytes
2010 hypothetical 100x increase: 5800×4400 @ 24bpp = 76,560,000 bytes
And, assuming 300dpi, this display would be 19 inches wide, 14.6 inches tall, which is a very reasonable size for a desktop display.
Product adaptation rates are different in different countries, some countries, like Sweden adapts to new products / services much faster b/c better economic situation and good infrastructure to support new products / services, this has lead to a mentality in Sweden where we are open to new product and services and are willing to try them out.
The product adaptation rate in the states might be suffering a bit right now.